The Kansas City Chiefs own the recent rivalry with the Los Angeles Chargers, winning the last nine meetings straight up, including a 38-28 victory to open this season, and going 7-2 against the spread in the process. Who’s the smart bet for the 118th edition of Chiefs-Chargers on Thursday night at Arrowhead?
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NFL point spread: The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 56.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.5-22.9 Chiefs (NFL pickson every game)
Chargers vs Chiefs Live Free
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Why the Chargers can cover the spread
Los Angeles rides a four-game winning streak into this contest after holding off Cincinnati on Sunday 26-21. The Chargers drove their first two possessions of the game 75 yards to touchdowns, led 17-12 at the half, let the Bengals creep to within 23-21 with just under two minutes to go but foiled a two-point conversion, then added a field goal and hung on from there.
For the day, Los Angeles only came up with 288 yards of total offense but only allowed 295. The Chargers also got a four-for-four performance on field goals from kicker Michael Badgley, including a 59-yarder.
Los Angles has now out-gained eight of its last 10 opponents, going 6-4 ATS at online sports betting sites over that span. At 10-3 overall, the Chargers now trail the Chiefs by one game not only in the AFC West but in the battle for the best record in the AFC.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Kansas City carries a two-game winning streak into this contest, after outlasting Baltimore on Sunday 27-24 in overtime. The Chiefs drove their second possession of the game 75 yards to a touchdown, led 17-10 at the half, fell down 24-17 late but drove 75 yards to a touchdown with just under a minute to go to force OT. Kansas City then drove the first possession of extra time 58 yards to a field goal, then won it with a defensive stop.
For the day, the Chiefs racked up 441 yards of total offense on the No. 1 defense in the league and held the Ravens to 321 yards. Kansas City has now out-gained its last five opponents, and out-rushed four of its last five foes.
At 11-2 overall the Chiefs can clinch the AFC West with a victory Thursday night. Kansas City also now leads New England and Houston by two games in the battle for the best record in the AFC.
Smart betting pick
The Chiefs won the first matchup between these teams this season by 10 points, but Los Angeles out-gained Kansas City that day by almost 200 yards, and one of the Chiefs touchdowns came on a 91-yard punt return.
As for Thursday night, Kansas City gets the checkmark on offense, but the Chargers get the checkmark on defense. And the better defense is usually the better bet. The smart money here at online betting sites likes Los Angeles.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in three of the Chargers’ last four games on the road vs. the Chiefs.
The total has gone under in nine of the Chiefs’ last 11 games at home.
The Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. their division on the road.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagramor head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app